It amuses me every time I hear NPR talk about how the FED still doesn't believe we're in a recession yet. In the past 3 weeks the stock market has tumbled some 600 points, to the lowest point since 2006. Oil worries continue to surge and have begun to affect everyone from school bus drivers, truckers, soccer moms, poltical power plays, to airlines and average joes. The housing market continues to dive as the credit crunch stays on the radar, jobless claims up and hello folks we be @#$@!
Yet, apparently we're not ready to think about the idea that a recession is here. Well I'm a consumer and I'll tell ya its been here and the wallet is getting freeze dried and duck taped shut. Consumer spending will fall to a slow crawl soon inbetween stories of record fires, floods and crushing stock market losses.
The only real good news is all those stocks I missed out on getting into are now cheap again and the options traders on the scene are bound to make a buck or two on the what ifs and eventual climbing the market will take. Though some sources expect even more losses, who knows.
Energy is America's achilies heel and its putting in motion mass hysteria. Everyone is gonna start pinching the bottom line and passing the expense buck to the consumer which is just gonna push your product or service from must have, to luxury to awww screw it go minimal- i don't need it.
For research, its probably a good time to be around because if there's one thing you gotta do on this scecne is reconnect with the consumer on getting in with what they can't live without.
In thinking about that, despite the flood, fires, and stock woes, what are some areas of products or services that people aren't gonna shut the door on?
People will continue to spend, though less and be far more choosey right? So where are the golden tickets?
1. connectivity
Ya gotta have the web, thats not going away, people need the web. Companies to keep an eye on: Google, Ebay, Craigslist, Amazon, and dare I say gaming companies. Bring on the fears, lead me to the escape- games make the mark. Another decent play in the connectivity bucket would be Apple but right now its being battered over RIM's doom news, even still, July 11th, and the SDK development gold rush will chime in impressive sales and sweet rapid ownership of something shiny and applely goodness. They will acquire more marketshare, they will push everyone outa the way to do it.
2. energy
Green, solar, hydro, natural gas, china, america, brazil, if they got energy solutions, they will have an impact on the market. Oil in general may go down but the affects of what oil has done just in the past 3 months will take years to go away.
3. schools, advice, and retooling
The quest for more cash is on. People will have to start retooling themselves, and that may mean more schooling, going back to school or getting some new skills somehow. Folks in the biz of giving solid qualified advice in consultantcy and in social network platforms will be in. You can't be paranoid by yourself, get a trusted friend to be paranoid with ya.
4. touch point assurance
I didn't call this research, because reseach by itself is just a book on someones desk stating the observed facts and its kinda lame in todays panic market. Companies need more than just a human centered design centric outlook, they need to move faster, get on that consumer radar and stay there. At work we talk about touch points, every point in the process of expericing a brands product or service. I think touch points are now more important than ever. Because the radar screen just dropped in radius by like a 100 fold. Before when consumers were high on houses, jobs, energy and cash flow galore, the radar screen was massive, hell, we'd try anything and needed nothing. Now that screen has shrinking by the day and our wants go into nice to haves when we can afford it, and the need is front and center.
Do people really ned you? Do they NEED to have your service, your experience? MUST they have it? Well if you can't answer that question, odds are no. If you can answer that question, ask it again at every touch point in your product or service experience. Thats where the golden ticket is, filling in that gap and saying yes, you need it, you need me, at every point in the cycle, then, just then you'll be golden.
5. advertising dies and stories rise
I read the other day that Ad Age magazine had some snickering comment about todays advertising scene like, the big idea wasn't some new approach it was simply don't advertise. That was the great idea, don't do it. Probably because the market is so volitile that its debatable if it would be heard correctly or timely enough to matter. Advertising is continuing to go through this odd courtship with the web. As blogs, social networking and sites like twitter and youtube take over the hive mind of millions of consumers, get real man, people aren't tuning into TV commericals or print ads or any kind of pushed advertising. Consumers are digging into the experience of products and services, thats where you advertise. Every Apple experience I had advertisies to me the potential future experiences I could have with them. I tune into the web to tell me whats interesting based on my own interests, not by clicking sponored ads on google or any social networking site. Simply put, if you're doing something right, it'll find its way to twitter or youtube and the masses will find out. I would of never bought $1000 bucks in KORG music gear if it wasn't for Youtube. Youtube told me about the Kaossilator, it told me about the KP3, and MiniKP, through fan videos alone the urge to overcame me and I had to have those products, not want, HAVE, need. KORG's cost to ensure that success.. make a good product that delivers on an experience so much that it sells itself.
6. location based services
This one makes me laugh. In 2005, 2006 I was a raving location based services nut. I drew up countless ideas on why this market would take off and as usual, i was just ahead of the curve by a year or so. But I tell you this, this market will BOOM. And its not because its radically new, its not, it was around in 2005, tweaked and wondered about in 2006 but no one could get the experience down right. Nokia tried and with the Symbian OS and all the players on the scene there in UK worked hard to try and push the idea of location based services up, but it never really took off. First conusmers didnt know why they needed it, and secondly the experience still sucked and third, the tech of a GPS in the phone hadn't really arrived yet. Even in Japan they toyed around with it, and its probably more solid there than anywhere here in the states.
Even still, thats all about to change come July 11th when that new Apple 3G iPhone arrives with that yummy sweet user experience and GPS inside. All that goodness plus a smart savvy way to reach out the billions of bright folks on the planet and give them 70% of whatever they make in terms of an application on the iphone that does something on the scene of well anything, but notablely location based services, and I shit you not, there will be oooooodles of apps, press, reasons why and more. All the pieces line up, solid user experience, rabid fan base, rabid development base, incentive to develop, killer development kit, untapped unrealized unlimited possibilities in location based services, and all ya need to really do is fill a simple niche in the scene and you are golden. And what the web itself filled what a few billion or so niches itself? The market of where you are, what you can do, and what can happen next, thats what its all about and that scene, that game, that boom arrives on July 11th.
So yes, we're in the RED, the stock tickers scream at me as I write this, -368.41, market is down down down but not over. Opportunity is out there, but you'll have to work harder to get on my radar and to snag any of my cash. Don't bother posting billboards or crapping an expensive ad down my throat, I'll check the web, talk to friend, seek out a twitter or better yet, just research the crap outa ya to figure out whats best for me. Meanwhile your experience better be solid, assured on every touch point, pleasing to no end, almost required, sho'nuff. And in return, I'll give you loyalty, spread the word on youtube, tell a twitter or two, maybe even a blog bite or review.
Nuff said.
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